Thursday, December 22, 2011

NBA Division Breakdown: Western Conference Northwest Division


Last Season: 
Standings: 1. Thunder 55-27 2. Nuggets 50-32 3. Blazers 48-34 4. Jazz 39-43 5. Timberwolves 17-65  
Playoff Teams: 1. Thunder (#4 Seed) 2. Nuggets (#5 Seed) 3. Blazers (#6 Seed) 
Review: The Thunder took this division last season as they made their 1st steps towards becoming an elite team last season in my opinion. Durant won the scoring title for the 2nd straight season and Westbrook improved his game so much he made his 1st all start appearance and the All NBA 3rd team. The Thunder also traded former lottery pick Jeff Green to the Celtics to get Kendrick Perkins to try and add a little toughness to the team. The Nuggets went through last season what the Magic might be going through this season as far as maybe having to trade a superstar. They traded Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks and got back great value in my opinion in Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timothy Mozco. The Blazers also made moves at the deadline as they traded to get Gerald Wallace and got hot at the end of the year and were favored by many to beat beat the eventual NBA champion Dallas Mavericks. The Jazz were in a state of transition all year. They lost Carlos Boozer and traded for Al Jefferson in the offseason and then eventually Sloan retired and Deron Williams was traded. And the Timberwolves had the worst record in all the league and struggled all year to defend anybody.

This Season:
Predicted Standings: 1. Thunder 2. Blazers 3. Jazz 4. T-wolves 5. Nuggets
Predicted Playoff Teams: 1. Thunder 2. Blazers
Division Preview: I predict that the Thunder will take this division again this year and not only that I expect them to be major contenders for the best overall record in the West. We all know Durant is one of the best scorers in the NBA but he needs to become an elite player on defense to truly elevate this team to a finals appearance. Westbrook has to get better at being a pure point guard and as shooter and most likely he will. The Blazers lost Roy to retirement but added Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford to the mix this year and I expect them to be solid again this year and maybe a team that can sneak up and make a run during playoff time if Oden is healthy all season. The Jazz will be in the hunt for that 8th and final playoff spot but I have them getting edged out by the Rockets. Still look for Derrick Favors to show some improvement and if rookies Alec Burks and Enes Kanter can bring good minutes off the bench the Jazz could prove me wrong and get in the playoffs. I expect major improvement from the T-Wolves as I believe young Ricky Rubio is the real deal and will be exactly what this team needs. Expect a dropoff from the Nuggets who have 3 of their main players overseas and unable to come play for them this season. They probably would have lost 2 to free agency anyway though so this drop off was somewhat inevitable.

Team Previews: 
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Key Losses: PG. Nate Robinson (to be cut) PF. B.J. Mullens (Traded to the Bobcats) 
Key Acquisitions: PG. Reggie Jackson (1st Round Pick) 
Projected Starting 5: PG. Russell Westbrook SG. James Harden SF. Kevin Durant PF. Serge Ibaka C. Kendrick Perkins 
Expectations: The Thunder are an elite team and they have a legit shot to win the West. However because the west is so wide open this year I can't say for sure where I actually expect them to finish up but a 2nd round playoff appearance is at least guaranteed. Because of their depth, youth, and length of time playing together they should be able to overcome a rushed training camp and the grind of all those back to back games. Russell Westbrook has to mature as a PG and I think he will get better but still not at the level he needs to be at to help Durant get this team over the top. I expect a monster season from Durant who appears to have improved his 1 on 1 game and ball handling skills to make him an even more dangerous scorer. Kendrick Perkins slimmed down and should be more mobile which can only mean that him and Ibaka could be one of the most dominant defensive frontlines in basketball. The X-factor on this team is James Harden. If Harden can be a guy that gets around 18-20 a game and be a legit 3rd scoring option for the Thunder they would become a huge problem. 

2. Denver Nuggets
Key Losses: PG. Raymond Felton (traded to the Blazers) SG. J.R. Smith (overseas) SF. Wilson Chandler (overseas) PF. Kenyon Martin (overseas) SF. Gary Forbes (free agency) 
Key Additions: PG. Andre Miller (acquired via trade from the Blazers) SG. Rudy Fernandez (acquired via trade from the Mavericks) SG/SF. Corey Brewer (Acquired via trade from the Mavericks) PF. Kenneth Faried (1st round pick) SF/SG. Jordan Hamilton (1st Round Pick) 
Projected Starting 5: PG. Ty Lawson SG. Aaron Afflalo SF. Danilo Gallinari PF. Al Harrington C. Nene Hilario 
Expectations: I expect the Nuggets to take a step back this season as they possibly lost 3 of their 6 best players because their stuck overseas. J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler were 2 of the biggest contributers on offense for this team last season and now their gone and have basically been replaced by Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer. Also Felton is basically being replaced by Andre Miller and Martin replaced by rookie Kenneth Faried. The problem is that all 4 of those replacements are all downgrades. When you factor in new players learning a new system and less talent you typically always get a team that's not as good. Their will be some bright spots for this team the major one possibly being Gallinari who I expect to breakout as one of the leagues best scoring SFs in the NBA this season. You know what to expect from the guys that remain. Nene will be a solid C shoot a high percentage and do the little things, Affalo will be the equivalent of that at SG, Lawson will push the pace and create havoc breaking down defenses with his speed, and Harrington is a over paid 1 dimensional undersized PF that shoots too much. All in all it results in this team possibly finished last in this division. 

3. Portland Trail Blazers 
Key Losses: PG. Andre Miller (traded to the Nuggets) SG. Rudy Fernandez (traded to the Mavericks) SG. Brandon Roy (Career ending injury. Forced to retire) 
Key Acquisitions: PG. Raymond Felton (acquired via trade from the Nuggets) SG. Jamal Crawford (free agency) PF/C. Kurt Thomas (Free Agency) PG/SG. Nolan Smith (1st Round Pick) 
Projected Starting 5: PG. Raymond Felton SG. Wesley Matthews SF. Gerald Wallace PF. LaMarcus Aldridge C. Marcus Camby 
Expectations: I expect this team to make the playoffs and give some team a hell of a series in the 1st round. Their good enough to get to the 2nd round as they are a very deep and well put together team despite not having a true superstar. Their depth at all positions is going to make them 1 of the teams that does well during this frantic regular season. The Starting lineup aside from new comer Felton at the point is the same as last year and Felton is a huge upgrade that should make this offense better. Jamal Crawford will be bringing his scoring talents off the bench like he did for the Hawks and most likely will be in during the final stretches of games. The X-Factor on this team is Greg Oden and is he healthy, will he stay healthy, and how effective can he be if he is healthy. I don't have the answers to any of those questions but if he is healthy and effective that makes this team dangerous. 

4. Utah Jazz
Key Losses: C. Mehmet Okur (traded to the Nets) SF. Andre Kirelinko (free agency and possibly staying overseas) 
Key Acquisitions: SG. Alec Burks (1st Round Pick) C. Enes Kanter (1st Round Pick) SF. Josh Howard (Free Agency) PG. Earl Watson (free agency) 
Projected Starting 5: PG. Devin Harris SG. Raja Bell SF. Josh Howard PF. Paul Millsap C. Al Jefferson 
Expectations: The Jazz have a loaded front line this season. Not only do they have solid players starting they have 2 very high lottery picks from last years draft in Derrick Favors and this year's draft in Enes Kanter. One of the Jazz problems last season was scoring from the 2 wing positions and Josh Howard and Alec Burks should be able to help them in that area. There's no all star caliber player on this team but they do have depth and they have solid quality players in Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, and Millsap that should have this team competitive and in the playoff hunt. 

5. Minnesota Timberwolves 
Key Losses: PG. Sebastian Telfair (Free Agency) 
Key Acquisitions: PG. Ricky Rubio (2009 1st round pick) PF/SF. Derrick Williams (1st Round Pick) SF. Bonzi Wells (Free Agency) PG. J.J. Barea (free agency) 
Projected Starting 5: PG. Luke Ridnour SG. Wesley Johnson SF. Michael Beasley PF. Kevin Love C. Darko Millicic 
Expectations: I realize that I might be going out on a limb here and could be completely alone on this but I expect the T-Wolves to make some noise this year. Don't get me wrong their not going to the playoffs or even finishing over 500 but they could finish as high as 10th-12th in the West this year instead of at the bottom at 15th. I was high on Rubio back when he got drafted and have been waiting to see him play since and I think he'll be big time even as a rookie. Don't expect alot of points but when he's on the floor he can just make things happen and makes the players around him better. Defensively the T-Wolves will most likely still be terrible having a front line that lacks a single good defender in the starting lineup. Also 2nd year player Wesley Johnson is still out of position at the 2 where he has little impact on the game on the offensive end but he can defend either wing spot and should be able to help in that regard. 2nd overall pick Derrick Williams will most likely be the team's 6th man and will see time at both forward spots where he should be able to score from each spot. Williams will have to work to find a position on the floor where they feel comfortable with him defensively though. Expect Luke Ridnour to be traded soon to make room for Rubio in the starting lineup and for Barea as the lead guard off the bench. The T-Wolves have some solid depth and alot of young talent and usually they screw it up and find away to suck but this year I expect things to be different. 

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